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Table 2 Daily percentage change (DPC) and average daily percentage change (ADPC) in the new cases of COVID-19 during the study period (19/3/2020–31/12/2022)

From: A joinpoint regression model to determine COVID-19 virulence due to vaccination programme in India: a longitudinal analysis from 2020 to 2022

Vaccination phase

Segment

Lower endpoint

Upper endpoint

DPC/ADPC

95% confidence limits

P-Value*

Lower

Upper

Pre-vaccination period (19/3/2020–15/1/2021)

1

1 (19/3/2020)

50 (7/5/2020)

6.4

4.7

8.3

< 0.001

2

50 (7/5/2020)

133 (29/7/2020)

3.3

3.1

3.4

< 0.001

3

133 (29/7/2020)

182 (16/9/2020)

1.3

1.1

1.5

< 0.001

4

182 (16/9/2020)

303 (15/1/2021)

− 1.4

− 1.4

− 1.3

< 0.001

Overall (ADPC)

1 (19/3/2020)

303 (15/1/2021)

1.6

1.3

1.8

< 0.001

Vaccination period (16/1/2021–31/12/2022)

1

304 (16/1/2021)

407 (29/4/2021)

4.6

4.2

4.9

< 0.001

2

407 (29/4/2021)

643 (21/12/2021)

− 2.0

− 2.0

− 1.9

< 0.001

3

643 (21/12/2021)

665 (12/1/2022)

21.6

15.1

28.4

< 0.001

4

665 (12/1/2022)

1018 (31/12/2022)

− 1.6

− 1.7

− 1.5

< 0.001

Overall (ADPC)

304 (16/1/2021)

1018 (31/12/2022)

− 0.22

− 0.40

− 0.04

< 0.001

  1. The best model during the pre-vaccination phase was based on a three joinpoints regression model with the least modified Bayesian Information Criterion (2.16)
  2. The best model during the vaccination phase was based on a three joinpoints regression model with the least modified Bayesian Information Criterion (4.51)